Donald Trump will win a second term as US president by a landslide, a host of respected pollsters have claimed.
Multiple economic surveys with a strong record of predicting presidential winners and losers say Trump will win next year’s midterm elections by a mile – as long as the economy stays strong.
Donald Luskin, whose firm TrendMacrolytics correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win, told Politico: ‘The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it.
Donald Trump pictured at a tank factory in Lima, Ohio, on Wednesday. Pollsters say he is likely to win a landslide victory in next year’s 2020 midterm elections (Picture: Getty)‘I just don’t see how the blue wall (18 US states and District of Columbia that consistently picked Democrats between 1992 and 2012) could resist all that.’
Luskin’s firm ignores election polls and personal traits of presidential candidates, instead factoring in growth rates, wages, unemployment figures inflation and gas prices.
All those metrics are known to strongly influence voters’ decisions when it comes to picking a potential president.
Yale economist Ray Fair, who pioneered that type of modeling, also agrees Trump stands a strong chance of romping home to victory in 2020.
He explained: ‘Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy – and that’s more or less consensus for between now and the election – that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin.’
Pollsters say only a sharp economic downturn or huge personal scandal would seriously harm Trump’s chances of being reelected president next autumn (Picture: Getty)Fair, who also predicted Trump’s 2016 win, says he thinks the president will beat off his as yet unannounced Democrat rival by winning 54% of the vote, to their 46%.
Luskin added that a gradual economic slowdown between now and next fall is unlikely to damage Trump’s chances, although a sudden downturn could put the president in danger.
The Federal Reserve – which sets US interest rates, and dictates the cost of borrowing – is likely to stimulate growth further by keeping those rates low.
Mark Zandy from Moody’s Analytics is a vocal critic of Trump, but concedes that his models also show the president winning a second term next year.
But he said the presidential’s popularity rating could take a hit if a damaging scandal erupts, and says that could be enough to derail Trump’s entire campaign.
Zandy told Politico: ‘The only exception is his popularity, which matters a lot. If that falls off a cliff it would make a big difference.’
Trump critics and Democrats are currently eagerly awaiting the publication of special counsel Robert Mueller’s report into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election campaign.
The president has denied any direct involvement, with rivals warning that allegations to the contrary in Mueller’s report could land him in deep trouble.