Isis taking advantage of ‘inspired’ terror attacks

July 27, 2016 9:00 am

The terrorist attacks seem to come one right after the other, by truck, handgun, axe, assault rifle, machete, bomb and knife.
Each day, a string of alerts on your phone. Or worse, the sound of shots fired, or sirens blaring in your city.
In
a show of the increasing influence of (Islamic State), we now
await, and even expect, revelations that the attackers are affiliated
with the group. in most of the world has become synonymous
with its name.
But in many recent cases, it seems that Isis’
media apparatus is also waiting for those revelations. Since the highly
coordinated attacks in Paris last November, most of the attacks that the
group eventually claimed were carried out by individuals who may never
have come into direct contact with operatives in their supposed
“caliphate” in northern Iraq and Syria.

These attackers did not give Isis notice that they would be
acting in its name. Instead, some of them self-radicalised and left
recordings behind offering oaths of allegiance.
By reading the
language in Isis’ claims on attacks, one can see which of them were
heavily directed, as in Paris and Brussels, and which were simply
inspired by the group’s ideology. There is a clear difference between
claims made after attacks that Isis leaders knew about beforehand, and
attacks they didn’t.
In the case of Paris, for instance, highly
detailed press releases were distributed right after the carnage,
complete with videos and pictures. On the other hand, Amaq, Isis’ media
arm, claims responsibility for “inspired” attacks only once it gets
credible information of a link, either from a source of its own or from
the news media. Isis does not always have its own inside source.
“What
has evolved is that they are doing much the same thing that we do as
analysts, which is watch these attacks and try and figure out if it is
Isis-inspired,” said JM Berger, a fellow with George Washington
University’s Programme on Extremism and the co-author of Isis: The State of Terror.
After a man blew himself up in Ansbach, Germany on
Monday, it took Amaq 24 hours to claim that Isis inspired the attack.
After a 17-year-old axe-wielding Afghan went on a rampage on a train,
also in Germany, it took nine hours to issue such a claim. After Mohamed
Lahouaiej Bouhlel mowed down dozens in Nice with a truck, it took a
full day and a half.
“For these inspired attacks, it’s important
to know that [the media people in Syria] don’t even know of these guys.
They have nothing to do with them. They aren’t in contact with them
directly,” said Amarnath Amarasingam, a fellow studying extremism at
Dalhousie University in Canada and the co-director of a study of Western
fighters for Isis, based at the University of Waterloo in Ontario,
Canada.
The lag time in claiming an attack reflects a need to
establish a credible link between the attacker and Isis. Many have
lampooned Isis as an organisation keen to claim each and every terrorist
attack around the world, but analysts say it has a vested interest in
being accurate.
“They’re careful about it. They couch their terms
a bit,” said Berger. “If they can accurately insert themselves into the
narrative around an attack, they win, essentially.”
In other
cases, though, it has proved effective for Isis to claim attacks in
which the link is far sketchier. For instance, in the San Bernardino
attack last December, the media widely reported that the couple who
carried out the attack had posted an oath of allegiance to Isis on
Facebook. Amaq then proclaimed them “soldiers of the caliphate”. But the
FBI never confirmed that the Facebook post was ever written, and
Director James Comey said at the time, “I’ve seen some reporting on
that, and that’s a garble”. San Bernardino nonetheless gave Isis the
chance to claim its first “inspired” attack on American soil.

If they can accurately insert themselves into the narrative around an attack, they win, essentially.

JM Berger

Beyond
credibility issues, the hesitance to immediately claim the attacks like
the most recent ones in Germany and France may also reflect
embarrassment the group felt after associating with particular lone-wolf
attackers.
In the weeks following their attacks, news reports
indicated that the attacker in Nice, Mohamed Bouhlel, and Omar Mateen,
who killed 49 people at an Orlando, Florida, nightclub in June, may have
had sexual relationships with other men. Mateen and Bouhlel were each
embraced by Isis before that became public, and homosexuality is
punished through gruesome death penalties in the “caliphate”.
In
cases like those, attackers unvetted by Isis may still be at worst a
double-edged sword for the organisation. After all, despite bad
publicity, Isis can still claim that it inspired those attacks. And the
greater the perceived threat from the group becomes, the more it may
stir calls for larger-scale retaliation or anti-Muslim policies, leading
to the radicalisation of others.
Yesterday’s killing of an
octogenarian priest in France yielded a relatively quick claim. Between
“directed” and “inspired” attacks, it seems that this one lies somewhere
in the middle of the spectrum. News reports quickly uncovered one of
the attackers’ attempts last year to travel to Syria. Amaq’s statement
called the men “executors” and “soldiers of the Islamic State,” but more
or less acknowledged that Isis had not directed the attack. Instead, as
in other “inspired” attacks, Amaq said the men had responded to a call
for attacks to be carried out in countries participating in the
coalition fighting Isis in Iraq and Syria.
But it attributed its
claim to an “insider source,” whom Amarasingam said was likely to be
someone the attacker was in touch with during his failed “hijra” to
Syria last year. The part-directed, part-inspired nature of the attack
poses a dilemma for law enforcement in the West: Does preventing people
from travelling to Syria increase the likelihood of an attack at home?
“That’s
been part of Isis’ propaganda,” said Amarasingam. “You either pack your
bags or sharpen your knives. And if you’re unable to travel here and
join the caliphate, either because you can’t afford it or law
enforcement is watching you, you do have another recourse, which is to
defend us wherever you are.”

Tags:
shared on wplocker.com